Tax The Robots

The robots are coming, the robots are coming…er, scratch that, according to Tim Dunlop writing in
The Guardian in March, they’re already here.



Quoting a 2013 report from the Oxford Martin School, which ‘concluded that out of the 702 jobs examined, 47% were susceptible to automation within 20 years’, his opinion is that ‘the jobs are already lost and unlikely to come back.’ Recent reports have put a figure of approx. 250,000 jobs being automated within the next few years. What are these robots, and what does this all mean, politically, socially, economically, and personally for us all? The headline grabbers are the apple pickers that can now sense when an apple is ripe for picking, replacing the work of ten pickers; brick-laying machines that can lay 3000 bricks per hour; the little ‘truck’ that will deliver your pizza, hot, and a myriad of other inventions that will replace the back-breaking or meaningless jobs many people do at present. But behind the scenes, under the surface, and most ubiquitously, in your pocket, a silent revolution is taking place which, whether it takes ten years or a hundred, will fundamentally alter the way we live, work and play.

          

  Take a look at the huge warehouses operated by companies like Amazon. In the past they would have employed tens of thousands across the country to cope with the demand. Now, although they do provide some employment, they rely massively on robots, automated systems to stack, store, categorise and deliver parcels to the correct human. This is an example of the kind of recognisable machines we think of when we talk of robots replacing jobs. The silent revolution though will arguably have a bigger impact upon the low-skilled white-collar jobs, which are prone to being replaced by voice activated software guiding the caller through a series of automated steps, including scanning documents, which it will read, and make decisions based on the data gathered and the caller’s responses. Sound far-fetched? No, you say, we’ve all been on the phone to a bloody annoying automated voice when trying to get a simple answer for the council. But this is one stage further. A Japanese insurance company recently laid of eighty staff and replaced them with a sophisticated algorithm, which does exactly what I have described, but goes a step further by making recommendations for insurance payouts and settlements, which the human caller can chooses to accept or otherwise. Any negative response or a recommendation outside of pre-set parameters will invoke a human intervention, but those eighty jobs are now gone. So successful is this, and so developed the software, that 02 are considering implementing something similar for their UK call-centres. Already jobs that can be replaced by digital or mechanical robots have been, or are on their way to being replaced. This will affect those in the middle, mainly without the computer based technical skills, and have a direct impact on increasing inequality. In some ways the progression towards this, although already vast – the machinery employed on ‘super-farms’ is a good example, has been relatively slow compared to predictions over the past few decades, but the change will be qualitative and then quantitative, based on how quickly the price of the technology falls.

           

  What PC, tablet or mobile telephone are you reading this article on? Consider the degree to which prices have fallen for your kit compared to a few years ago, or how much more you can get for a comparative price. The same applies to the technologies being introduced now to replace a multitude of jobs. Wages have been pushed down to such a degree that at the moment argues Dunlop, ‘robots could be forgiven for worrying about their prospects given the falling cost of labour’, but once the cost of the technology falls below that of labour costs, then automation could sweep across the labour market like a laser through butter. This will impact upon the UK labour force, but also has global implications. For some time it has been common practice to outsource to countries in the developing world such as India; who hasn’t, for example, been greeted by a well-trained Indian worker when calling to complain about their router failing. But if the cost is as cheap, or even cheaper, to use automation in the UK, then that potentially spells an end to outsourcing overseas.

           

  Aren’t robotics and automation good news? Yes, in one sense. Shouldn’t we celebrate the end of these jobs and look forward to a reduction in the working week which the Government will surely introduce to accommodate the whole labour force? Mmmm, yes, but I’m not sure it’s going to work quite that way.

     

       Why? Have you noticed how, through the massive increase in tuition fees, the increase in academies, then ‘Free’ schools, and recent proposals from the Tories for a  move back to Grammar Schools and selection, opportunities for young people are slowly being squeezed? Some may argue this is a return to good standards of education based on intelligence, etc. Others, myself included, argue this is a well-conceived, and currently fairly well executed plan to start discouraging, or actively blocking a huge swathe of working, and lower-middle class children from academic qualification. But why – surely the numbers of young people now gaining a degree is something to celebrate? Well maybe it’s because they (i.e. government, big business, the elite, etc.) have realised that as automation increases, the call for a growing number of degree educated, highly expectant graduates is the last thing they want piling out of universities looking for work commensurate with their educational attainment. Here’s where society is about to divide again (as if we don’t already have enough divisions!), between a small sector of highly qualified technicians and a growing pool of low-skilled, low-paid workers, sitting on top of a permanently unemployed or under-employed under-class.

            And what else do we lose, or are losing, as a regiment of Metal Mickey’s step into replace human jobs. We lose the spending power of their wages, but perhaps more importantly, we lose their contributions, through tax and National Insurance, to social and health care, the importance of which grows daily along with the growth of an aging population. And that’s why even figures such as Bill Gates have called for employers to be taxed for their robots in the same way as they would if they were employing humans. But let’s be honest, this is never going to happen. Their main raison d’etre for wanting to replace workers with robots isn’t to relieve us of soul destroying tasks, but to drive down labour costs. Therefore, this is a key impetus for the destruction of the NHS. They understand with the decline in social income through tax and NI there simply won’t be enough money under the current system to support the NHS. There would be if their profits were taxed, but in the meantime we are witnessing the slow death by a thousand consultants of the NHS and social care and support, and an assault by privateers keen to recreate a UK version of that oh so lucrative American healthcare market.

         

   Healthcare itself can benefit enormously from recent technological developments, including robots that can carry out complex operations with a higher degree of accuracy that surgeons and software that can diagnose illness and thereby help reduce the pressure on GP’s. But to underpin this we are also moving to a gig economy within the NHS. Reform, an influential right-wing think-tank recently argued for public services becoming ‘the next Uber, using gig economy to employ locum doctors and supply teachers.’ Workers, they say, could support themselves through a variety of flexible jobs acquired through online platforms.’

          

  We have seen how quickly the gig economy has taken hold, and should recognise that for a large proportion of people flexible hours suit their lifestyle. But when, rather than being freelance and able, for example, to taxi for anyone, you are tied to one company, and have to give them notice of when you will take time off or even have to find a replacement or be fined for not doing so, then you aren’t really freelance. The courts have recognised this, and it is through appeals that workers such as James Farrar, who is appearing at WoW’s Tax the Robots event, have been able to push back and claim their holiday and pension rights. The unions too are onboard and need to be, as this is where the major battle for this generation of workers lies.

            When we think of automation, we think of robots. But what about the automation of workers? In one sense it’s nothing new – many are the people who have felt like a robot standing on any kind of production line. But, to paraphrase  Dylan, there’s something happening here, and this what it is: staff being tracked by GPS and computers as they go about their work tasks, so that everything they do, their interactions with other staff, breaks, toilet breaks, and how quickly they perform their main work task, are all monitored. In one company a worker was sacked for removing their tagging bracelet outside of working hours. This is beyond the wildest dreams of the 1950s inventors of Time and Motion studies, Winslow Taylor and Frank and Lillian Gilbreth, and beginning to look like our worst nightmares gleaned from films such as Charlie Chaplin’s Modern Times. It’s beyond Orwellian too, as we are now being forced into collaborating with our own surveillance. As one writer pointed out, when a company gives all it’s staff a Fitbit, and organises those who want to compete in marathons, etc., into teams, it’s just for fun; but for how long?

           

  In the world of The Internet of Things, where household appliances can communicate with you and each other, what we are missing here is that we are just one more of the ‘things’ linked into this system. It aids surveillance and monitoring. Initially this is ‘just’ used to target consumers with tailored advertising through the collection of data. But besides the many ethical questions posed here, including the horrific example of Facebook using posts to target vulnerable teenagers with advertising, we know no limits to how far this can go, and at present have no grip, say or control on the monitoring of what we essentially own - ourselves.

         

   If, as it appears, the onward implementation of robotics, automation and forms of AI are unstoppable, what happens to al those pushed out of work? One solution, financially at least, is a retraining grant for the unskilled of £2000, and a £1000 grant for those skilled but whose jobs are under threat. A positive idea, but it seems to me it is a drop in the ocean when you compare it to the assault on learning for many from a young age. There is also the Universal Basic Income, proposed by one of WoW’s panellists Matt Kerr. The idea is to pay everyone a minimum income, which isn’t penalised if someone works as is the case under the present system. It has its challenges: will this de-motivate people; should it be universal like Child Benefit, or should those above a certain income be excluded; what happens if people spend it and don’t provide for their basic needs – should they be allowed to seek further support? I like the idea and the principle behind it. I think it could free people from the constraints of the present benefits system and could encourage a pooling of resources and cooperatives, as well as entrepreneurship. There are some early encouraging signs from Finland in an experiment in one region where 2,000 people receive 560 euros (£473) every month for two years. They don’t have to say if they are seeking employment or how they are spending the money, which is deducted from any benefits they are already receiving. Officials say it cuts bureaucracy and some recipients report a reduction in stress, but in truth, I don’t know what the long-term impact would be.

           

  But if we did get the dream – a reduction in hours and sufficient pay, what would we do all day? The brilliant Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, as ever looks at things a little differently, and invites you to do the same. Computer games, he argues, are the solution to entertaining what he pretty condescendingly labels ‘the useless class’, which may emerge in the future. Look at a teenager, he argues, playing on computer games all day. If you provide them with sufficient food, drink and warmth, they’re likely to continue to do so and feel fully engaged and satisfied. But how can this be transposed to wider society. Yuval thinks we’re missing the point. He says ‘For thousands of years, billions of people have found meaning in playing virtual reality games. In the past, we have called these virtual reality games “religions”’. It’s an interesting argument, and you can check out his points here: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/08/virtual-reality-religion-robots-sapiens-book

           

  Liverpool is no stranger to the gig economy; the docks were one of its earliest proponents. Neither are we strangers to mechanisation – the docks again and the introduction of containers. Manchester, with its great mills, was always more mechanised. David Swift writing in today’s Independent, argues this is where Corbyn should target his campaign in order to reach a new, gig economy based constituency. ‘Labour’, he says, ‘can learn from Scouse culture. One of the reasons they are in such dire straits is that Corbynism is focused tightly on young, well-educated white people, but this is a very narrow constituency. The family and faith-based, communitarian, often nihilistic left-wing culture of Liverpool is a better model for the demographics of the UK today and the gig economy than a labour culture founded on the chapels and miners’ lodges of a century ago.’

           

I quote this, not to argue for Labour, but to demonstrate just how this issue of the gig economy will be over time, as it also influences the thinking and actions of the main political parties. In many ways, their response to it will determine their success or otherwise in reaching out to an electorate going through massive social and technological changes.

          

  WoW’s ‘Tax the Robots’ day on Saturday 13^th May in Central Library is an attempt to keep abreast of developments by bringing an array of people directly working in or influenced by robots, AI, the gig economy, etc. or writing about it and exploring its impact. In a world first we are bringing in a Robot to ‘speak’ for itself – we’re nothing if we’re not inclusive. I doubt Ohbot the Robot will be bringing any of his friends or colleagues with him though. He doesn’t need to, they’ve already got us surrounded.

Mike Morris, Co-Director, Writing on the Wall 

 Venue: Central Library, William Brown Street, Liverpool, L3 8EW 

Date: Saturday 13th May 

Time: 11am 

Tickets available from Philharmonic Box Office: 0151 709 3789

Tickets: £8/£4 

Get tickets here